It’s time to take a quick look back at some of my predictions for the year. I try to be bold, and at times I’m even correct! My first season, I called, to the WEEK, when Donovan McNabb would be benched for Christian Ponder (wow that seems a long time ago). I also called the team that Carson Palmer would be traded to even though he was still under contract by Cincinnati. Haven’t been so lucky since, but here is the variance analysis from my post 7 months ago.
Sam Bradford will tear it up in Philadelphia, taking the team to the playoffs
- Eh, he was better than Foles was, and they were in the hunt until Week 16
Darren McFadden wins comeback player of the year (over Adrian Peterson, but he won’t get it due to NFL politics)
- Chiefs S Eric Berry won, due to his cancer. You could argue that Peterson made a very strong case. Darren McFadden was also only 1 of 7 players to rush for 1000 yards, and his previous 4 years were 614,707, 379, and 534. Going to say I was close on that one.
Jimmy Graham will struggle with the Seahawks. <5 TD’s and under 700 yards.
- Feel like I hit this one on the head. Graham had 2 TD’s and only 605 yards. He was a part of a season long discussion of his acquisition being a major disappointment.
Marcus Mariotta will far out-perform Jameis Winston
- Probably a wash. Jameis improved his team by 4 wins while Mariotta kept them at the status quo. Winston had more yards and TD’s, while Mariotta had a better completion percentage, and a better QB rating by quite a bit
DeMarco Murray will drop off drastically, LeSean McCoy will out rush him in their new respective teams
- Another wash. McCoy had 895 yds vs. 702 for Murray. But only 3 TD’s vs. Murray’s 6. I will point out how much this storyline dominated the NFL though regarding DeMarco’s disappointing season.
Ben Roethlisberger will lead the league in Yards and/or TD’s thrown this year
- Could have been a different story, but Big Ben missed 4 games due to injury. He did lead the league in yards per game which would have translated had he played all 16 games.
My rookies to watch:
Melvin Gordon (Chargers) will become a 3 down back by Week 4, and rush for 1000 yards and 15 TD’s.
- Big oops here! Gordon played in 14 games, posted a very average 3.5 yards per carry, 641 yards, and 0 TD’s
Maxx Williams (Gopher TE) will be a fantasy sleeper by the end of the year
- Another mistake. Williams did play in 14 games, but only averaged 2.3 receptions a game, and had 1 TD
DeVante Parker (Dolphins) will thrive with Ryan Tannehill
- Also jumped the gun a bit. Played in 14 games, but only had 26 receptions and 3 TD’s
- Luck only played in 7 games, and played poorly when he was in, throwing more INT’s than TD’s
Surprise teams to make playoffs:
Bills- Close, but not quite
Chargers/Saints- Not even close on both
Surprise teams to miss playoffs:
Ravens- Good call with only 5 wins after making the playoffs last year
Bengals- Nope, had a chance at the #1 seed up until Week 15
Lions- Good pick, started 1-7
Two most Overrated teams:
Seattle and Denver (but both will still limp into the playoffs)
- Eh, pretty good! You could argue that Manning limped into the playoffs, but Denver had the #1 seed the last 2 weeks
Two most Underrated teams:
Bills and Rams
- I’d say they lived up to their expectations
Colts vs Packers (Packers Win)
- Packers had a shot with their magic
Playoff Predictions: FMQB went 3-1 for Wild Card round, 1-3 for Division Round, 1-1 Championship, and 1-0 for the Super Bowl. 55% on picks
Raiders make a run from the 8th seed to the 5th to make the playoffs
- Raiders dropped to 10th, but have a lot to be happy about for next season
Jets move down to 6th, and Steelers get bumped from the playoff picture
- Close, just flip flopped
Vikings slip out, going 1-4 in their next 5 games
- Vikings actually closed strong at 3-2 to win the division
Falcons also slip out of the playoffs
- Falcons ended the season 2-6
#1 seeds stay the same (Panthers and Patriots), and they meet in a Super Bowl rematch
- Very close, Panthers were a #1 seed and made the Super Bowl. Patriots were the #2 seed but were a two-point conversion away from making that prediction true
Best Prediction of the Season:
In my Week 2 article, I said the following: “As a fan, I have been loving the change (although the first playoff game that involves a missed extra point will create outrage).” This basically cost a team the chance to go to a Super Bowl
5 Years of Super Bowl Predictions:
I have managed to bookend my tenure by only getting the Super Bowl right when predicting the underdog. In 2012, I had the Giants beating the Patriots. I then went 0-3, picking the 49ers to win in a shootout 34-28 (Ravens actually won 34-31, close on the score), then the Broncos beating Seattle 25-23 (they got crushed 43-8), and the Seahawks beating the Patriots in a nail biter at 28-27 (was still a nail biter, but Patriots won 28-24). I finally corrected my course in picking the Broncos in an upset to win 24-20 (they won 24-10).
For the Record:
3 of the last 4 Super Bowls, I have picked the score of the winning team dead on!