FMQB

FMQB: Super Bowl Preview

This year’s Super Bowl is what we deserve, new faces, young superstars, and fresh storylines. This is the 1^st Super Bowl in 7 years without Brady or Peyton Manning in it, and the 3^rd time since 2000 without Brady, Manning or Roethlisberger in the big game. This is a breath of fresh air, and we have 2 up and coming QB’s.

 

The Chiefs have had a nasty habit of starting off very slow, getting behind, and coming back to win. I don’t think they can do that against the 49ers and still be in the game. Watch for the scenario where San Francisco gets ahead 10-0 early, and then Mahomes takes his first of multiple sacks. IF this happens, I don’t see the Chiefs winning this game. On the other hand, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised to see San Fran’s offense sputter while the Chiefs remain the same, leading to a 24-10 lead at halftime and never looking back. The one other thing I’m watching for is a Chiefs lead late in the 4^th, and a big 49ers stop. Possibly with a bad play call (throwing on 3^rd down when they could run out the clock).

 

 

Stats to Watch:

• All 3 49ers losses this season came on the final play of the game
• Mahomes has never lost a game by more than 7 points in his career
• 5 of the last 9 Super Bowl champs, surrendered 24 or more points in the process but still picked up the win
• Defense wins championships: look at Broncos over Panthers and Seahawks over Broncos as examples of top offenses who got crushed by defense
• Jimmy Garoppolo is 21-6 in his 27 starts
• Patrick Mahomes is 24-7 in his 31 starts
• This is only the 2^nd time in Super Bowl history where 1 team led their conference in rushing (49ers) while the other team lead their conference in passing (Chiefs).
• The Chiefs went 50 years in between Super Bowl appearances
• While the 49ers can tie for the most Super Bowl victories if they win

 

Stat of the Week:

Patrick Mahomes is the only QB with more than 10 TD passes and 0 INT’s to start their playoff career. And his playoff passer rating of 115.0 is 12 points higher than the person in 2^nd place!

 

Prediction:

 

I did the cop out answer last year, and I’m going to do it again this year. I will be actively rooting for the Chiefs. I really want to see Andy Reid win the big game, and Patrick Mahomes is this generation’s Brady with a little more style and a little less “bro.” BUT, I keep circling back to “Defense wins championships.” The 49ers have proven they can score with minimal offensive output, and I think their defense will give Mahomes fits. Sure, Mahomes is such a great athlete that it’s inevitable that he’ll get big plays off. But I struggle seeing him sustain drives, and he’ll be pressured and not have wide open guys like he’s used to. I think the game is close and high scoring, but much to Bears’ fans dismay, Robbie Gould hits a game winning Field Goal. 49ers 34, Chiefs 31.

 

For the record, I’m 3-4 in Super Bowl predictions, so pushin for .500!

 

Memes of the Week:

 

 

 

 

FMQB: Extra Week, Extra Kermitty

Oi vey, yours truly missed last week’s post, in the middle of the playoffs! Sorry. I’ll do a quick reminder and update on the Divisional round, and then discuss both lackluster Championship games. On the plus side, loads of memes this week!

 

Divisional Round:

 

• Kirk Cousins was sacked 6 times. Despite not being a flashy game, they were in it deep into the 3^rd.
• The Ravens legitimately knew the Titans gameplan, and couldn’t stop it
• Kansas City had 3 TD’s in 3:24 of game time!
• KC tied the 4^th biggest playoff comeback, and they accomplished that in 1 quarter! Only 10:10 in game time
• The Davonte Adams TD was one of the simplist but most genius play calls I’ve seen. The Packers faked a pick play, so right when the Seahawks defenders switched, Adams ran back out to the corner and was wide open.
• For the record, the Fox line was way off, and Jimmy Graham had the 1^st down.

 

 

Stat of the Week:

The Titans beat the Patriots with 72 yards passing, and the Ravens with 88 yards.

 

Stat of the Week #2:

The Titans scored 28 points on 53 plays, the Ravens scored 12 points on 92 plays

 

Stat of the Week #3:

Lamar Jackson had 365 yards passing, and 143 yards rushing, and still lost AND only scored 12 points.

 

Stat of the Week #4:

Derrick Henry is the first RB with 180 rushing yards in 3 straight games in NFL history

 

Stat of the Week #5:

Kansas City is the first team to win a game by 20 points, after trailing a team by 20 points.

 

Of Note:

• It was really cool watching Bill Cowher and Jimmy Johnson get surprised on-set with their Hall of Fame announcements. Not that I 100% agree with both, but still very cool to watch both live
• Luke Kuechly retiring at age 28 was shocking! I mentioned when Andrew luck did it that we may see more of this, but it’s still shocking
• It’s boggling to me that Phillip Rivers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady are all free agents this year. We could have a huge round robin of QB’s with Winston, Tannehill, Dalton, Bridgewater, Prescott, and Mariotta also likely changing.

 

Importance of seeding:

Both Super Bowl teams can really thank the playoff scheduling Gods for getting there. The Chiefs can moreso thank the Dolphins haha, but their road to the big game would have been drastically different. It would have been Titans in game 1 (they proved they could beat, but Titans may have surprised them), then Patriots on the road for game 2, and likely against the Ravens in the AFC Championship game, on the road again. Instead the Chiefs got 2 cushy home games, against the Texans and Titans, a 3 and 6 seed. I’d heavily argue that if it wasn’t for the Dolphins winning in Week 17, the Chiefs wouldn’t be in the Super Bowl!

 

The 49ers had a similar path, barely nailing the #1 seed instead of the 5. San Fran had 2 home games against a 6 seed and a Packers team they already obliterated at home. Their road likely would have been at Eagles (likely win), at Green Bay (at Lambeau, that could have been different), then at New Orleans (they barely won in the reg season).

 

If seeding were slightly different, I easily take Ravens vs. Saints in the Super Bowl. Instead both couldn’t win a playoff game.

 

 

Championship Round:

 

So the Titans Chiefs game had some drama, and at least the 1^st half was competitive. But otherwise the it truly felt like neither the Packers or Titans belonged in the game. The Packers were beaten on all sides of the ball. At one point with a minute left in the 1^st half, I said “at least it isn’t QUITE as bad as the last time they played” (since they went into halftime last time down 23-0). But alas, Mostert scored and actually made it worse.

 

Fact of the Week:

This is the 1st Super Bowl in the last 7 years not to have LaGarrett Blount or CJ Anderson in it. Don’t worry, I have my Manning/Brady stat for next week, but that’s super obscure to me!

 

Tough Road:

The Titans played all 4 division winners, on the road, in back-back-back-back games to end the season, and went 3-1. Texans in Week 17, then Patriots, Ravens, and ended with the Chiefs.

 

Stat of the Week:

Jimmy Garropolo went 6 for 8, and they scored 37 points!

 

Stat of the Week #2:

Tannehill hadn’t thrown for 100 yards in either win, but was over 100 within the first 16 minutes of the KC game

 

Stat of the Week #3:

Raheem Mostert had the 2^nd most rushing yards in a playoff game ever. He started the season #4 on SF’s depth chart, is on his 7^th team, and had been released from 6 teams in the last 4 years.

 

For the Record:

Mahomes sounded extra kermitty during the trophy presentation

 

 

 

 

Quote of the Week:

What did you do to celebrate your victory?

I got a cheeseburger and went to bed- Andy Reid

 

Quote of the Week #2:

“Colonel Mostert, in the kitchen, with the Candlestick!” Chris Berman. Can we bring these guys back full time, please?!?!

 

 

Memes of the Week:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FMQB: Wild WildCard

Wild WildCard! Every game was a 1 possession game, 3 road teams won, and both 6 seeds won. My team isn’t even in the playoffs and my fingernails were shot after last weekend. The Division round is typically when the men separate themselves from the boys, but we were offered a real treat last weekend with 4 close games.

 

I was 2 for 2 last week, which isn’t bad considering 3 underdogs won.

 

 

Stat of the Week #1:

Taysom Hill was the first player with 25 passing yards, 25 receiving yards, and 25 rushing yards in a playoff game

  Continue Reading

FMQB: Taste the Rainbow

The season is over for a majority of the league, but here comes the most exciting time of the season! 11 more games left, soak it in while you can.

 

2019 Recap:

• 16 different players had 1000 yards rushing this year, compared to only 9 last year
• Derek Carr has 55 losses which is the 2^nd most all time for a QB in his first 6 seasons. #1? His brother, David Carr
• Christian McCaffrey is the 3^rd player in NFL History to have 1000 yards rushing and 1000 yards receiving
• Jameis Winston was the 8^th player to have a 5000 yard passing season
• The Ravens had 3296 rushing yards this season (or 206 yards per game), which is an NFL record
• Lamar Jackson led the NFL in passing TD’s too
• Other than the division winner, the rest of the NFC East coaches turned over this year
• Phillip Lindsay is the first undrafted running back to rush for 1000+ yards in his first 2 seasons
• Ryan Tannehill led the league in passer rating, with 117.5!

 

Week 17 Recap:

The 49ers have played in all 3 Games of the Year in my opinion. Game 256 was one of them. The Seahawks had basically 7 plays from the 12 yard line or closer to get in and couldn’t do it. Also the Delay of Game was what sealed it. I’m surprised Pete Carroll annoyingly glossed over this in his press conference, as this was the deciding factor. They had to trot Marshawn Lynch off the field because they had it at the 6, not the 1. Just terrible clock management. The game, the division, the fates of really all 6 NFC playoff teams, came down literally to 2 inches. 2 inches was the difference of the 49ers getting the #1 or #5 seed. The Packers could have had home field advantage, the Saints could have had a bye, the Seahawks another home game, and the Vikings playing an easier team than the 13-3 Saints.

 

The other crazy outcome was the Dolphins over the Patriots, IN Boston. You kind of laughed seeing that they were close, but thought there was about a 1% chance of them actually pulling it off. Brady is too good with the clock. Amazingly, the 4-11 Dolphins beat the Super Bowl champions on the road, in a must win game for them.

 

The Packers nearly “pulled a Patriots” and blew their chance at a first round bye. They went down to Detroit and a backup QB early, and had to scramble to come back in the 4^th quarter. This has been the Packer’s theme this year, slow starts. That doesn’t fly in the playoffs, and they need to fix this fast.

 

 

For the Record:

• The Falcons started the season 1-7, and ended 6-2
• The 49ers have had their last 5 games decided on the FINAL PLAY! Wow
• Extremely fitting that Winston’s 30^th INT was a walk off pick 6 to end the season
• It was good to stick with Shanahan after 2 rough seasons in San Francisco
• The Browns on the other hand, are onto their 9^th coach in 12 years

 

Stat of the Week #1:

The Packers went 2-0 against the Lions this year, despite never holding a lead in the first 59:59 of either game

 

Stat of the Week #2:

49ers first #1 seed in 22 years

 

Stat of the Week #3:

Patriots play in Wild Card Weekend for the first time in 10 years, none of their 6 Super Bowls have come without that first round bye

 

Stat of the Week #4:

Joe Burrow threw the same amount of passing TD’s in the Falcons Stadium in 1 game, as Matt Ryan had in 8

 

 

Jason Garrett

All jokes aside, I think Jason Garrett had to go this year. He’s perennially 8-8, and the only coach who had at least 10 years with his current team who hadn’t won a Super Bowl. Their roster was loaded this year, and they played in the weakest division in the league. It took 3 meetings to hash out that he wouldn’t be back, but I think the Cowboys would have been the laughing stock of the league if he would have gotten a front office position (essentially a PROMOTION after a season of talks of him being fired).

 

 

Top 100 Snub:

I get why you need to look at historical QB’s as your top 10, but hard to believe Drew Brees, who now holds passing yards and TD records, was not listed as one of the top 10 QB’s of all time.

 

Random Record Watch:

The 49ers are one of the most up and down teams in recent memory. Since 2010, they’ve gone from 3^rd in their division, to 1^st, to 4^th for 3 years, and now back to 1^st again.

 

Wild Card Weekend:

When did it change to AFC on Sat, NFC on Sun? This is a weird round to me, as I can legitimately see 3 upsets happening very easily and I wouldn’t be surprised (sorry Vikes fans, I think this is another 1 and done year).

 

Predictions:

Buffalo at Houston: I can see this one going both ways. I picture how much the Texans struggled against the Ravens defense, and the Bills are better on that side of the ball. They’re not going to put up 24+ points though, so this could be one of those games that’s “first to 20 wins.” I have Houston eeking it out, 24-17.

 

Titans at Patriots: Every bone in my body wants to pick Tennessee, as I can see this as the upset of the weekend. Ryan Tannehill is tuned in, they have the leading rusher in the league, and Mike Vrabel knows the Patriots schemes. I just can’t pull the trigger though. It will be low scoring as the Pats work the clock over the scoreboard. I have NE 20, Ten 17.

 

Vikings at Saints: New Orleans is the 3^rd 13-3 team to play in the Wild Card round, and probably the best team of the 8 playing this weekend. I think the Vikings show up, but can’t keep up. New Orleans 38, Minnesota 24

 

Seahawks at Eagles: Seattle is the stronger team but they’ve been wrecked by injuries. The only team in the league with more injuries is Philly. Battle of the Backups! I think Seattle is stronger and is the only road team to win this weekend. Seattle 24, Eagles 13

 

Quote of the Week:

“I’m getting confused, what game are you calling???”
“I’m calling BOTH games!” Kevin Harlan

 

Quote of the Week #2:

“Hail to the Dolphins” Andy Reid

 

Memes of the Week:

 

 

FMQB: Merry New Year

 

 

Final week of the season for 20 teams, and for the other 12 we could be looking at an incredibly competitive and even playing field in the playoffs. There’s not a ton of playoff drama the final week. 10 of the 12 teams are already secure. Other than seeding, the only things to watch for are whether it’s Titans/Steelers/Raiders in the final AFC WildCard slot, and whether the Eagles or Cowboys win their division.

 

 

Quick Hits:

• The Colts had 2 punt return TD’s on Sunday. There were ZERO punt return TD’s coming into the entire season
• The Chargers, playing at home, had to resort to the silent count because the visiting crowd was too loud.
• The 49ers converted two 3^rd and 16’s on their game winning drive. 2!
• For trying to fight for a #1 seed, it’s pretty odd that the Seahawks lost to Cardinals at home
• The Cowboys are a weird team, but I don’t think the Eagles are the right team to represent the East either
• As much as I hate Seattle, I’m pretty pumped to see Marshawn Lynch come back to the team

 

For the Record:

• Entering Week 16, the Raiders needed 5 things to go right in Week 16, and 5 more in Week 17 to make the playoffs. All 5 happened on Sunday. All 5 LOOK to be doable this week too, however with the Ravens resting their starters, I think the Steelers games knocks Oakland out.
• After starting the season 2-0-1, and after 2 very competitive games against the Chiefs and Packers, the Lions are 1-11.
• The Eagles were 5-7 and now control their own destiny to win the division

 

 

Stat of the Week #1:

Michael Thomas did it! He got the record for most receptions in a season, and has another game to pad that stat

 

Stat of the Week #2:

Jameis Winston’s first 3 passes of the game were Interception for TD, incomplete, Interception (for TD but came back on a penalty). Within 1:41 of the game, Winston had thrown 2 picks.

 

Stat of the Week #3:

IF Winston throws 2 more INT’s in Week 17, he’ll be the first QB to enter the 30-30 club. 30 TD’s and 30 INT’s.

 

Stat of the Week #4:

Winston has 28 INT’s this season, vs. Aaron Rodgers who has 25 in his last 5 years!

 

Stat of the Week #5:

Winston has 10 first quarter INT’s this season, while Lamar Jackson has 9 INT’s in his entire career

 

Stat of the Week #6:

The Bengals scored 23 in the last 6:11 of the 4^th quarter to force OT

 

Stat of the Week #7:

Since 2010, every team in the NFL has played in wildcard weekend in the playoffs except 2: The Patriots and the Browns

 

Stolen Stat of the Week #8:

This is the 30^th consecutive year that at least 33% of the playoff field is new compared with the previous year (so at least 4 of the 12 teams are different the following year).

 

Completely Random Stat of the Week #9:

We all know that punt returns are rare, but here are recent years where only 1 player returned a punt for a TD in an entire season: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2013, 2011, 2010, 2007, 2005, 200. Interestingly enough, each player in that season had multiple returns, but no other team could pull even 1 off.

 

Quote of the Week:

“Merry New Year” Marshawn Lynch

 

Fun Fact of the Week:

The Wisconsin Badgers and Green Bay Packers both clinched their divisions in Minnesota this year…

 

 

Playoff predictions:

Not much has changed for me, but here’s what the Wild Card Round could look like:

 

Steelers at Chiefs

Bills at Texans

Vikings at Saints

Seahawks at Eagles

 

Which then could look like

Chiefs at Patriots (YES please!)

Texans at Ravens

Seahawks at 49ers (Yes again!)

Saints at Packers

 

Setting us up for:

Chiefs at Ravens

Saints at 49ers (Game of the year rematch)

 

Super Bowl: Ravens vs. Saints

 

Games of the Week:

Packers at Lions

Chargers at Chiefs

Eagles at Giants

Titans at Texans

49ers at Seahawks

 

 

2pt Tracker:

 

Texans: +1

Redskins: +1

Jaguars: -1

Dolphins: -1

 

To be fair, this has turned into something, albeit small. The Texans have 1 extra win due to stopping the Jaguars on a 2 point play in Week 2. Coming into the final week of the season, their game against Tennessee would have been for the division, BUT, because of that win they could technically rest their guys the final game being locked into their seed.

 

 

Memes of the Week:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FMQB: The Damage has been done my friend

Quick Hits:

• The Falcons have beaten the 49ers and Saints both on the road (arguably top 2 teams in the NFC), but are 3-9 against the rest of the league
• Brees beats Manning’s record, set’s record for completion percentage going 29-30. Somehow didn’t have a perfect passer rating
• Cleveland is the only team without a winning season in the 2010s decade
• With Daniel Jones back under center, it looks like Eli Manning will finish his career exactly at .500
• The Bears botched the final 2 plays in my opinion, but holy cow did they get close to scoring on that play!

 

Coin flip controversy

I’ve learned my 3^rd thing in 2 weeks! I never knew with the coin toss, that you were deferring the “decision.” I always thought you were deferring possession. Thus if you chose to kick, you’d automatically get the ball back at halftime. I think we’re lucky this wasn’t a closer game, because this would have been a huge controversy. As a Rams fan, I don’t have a problem with getting the call right, but I do have an issue with McVay not learning until coming out of the halftime tunnel that the Rams would start on defense. That’s too late to make that call. Choose ANY of the TV timeouts to radio into the refs that it’s Cowboys ball, and tell McVay in the 1^st or 2^nd quarter about it.

 

Stat of the Week:

The Falcons scored 2 Touchdowns in 2 seconds (of game time of course), which is an NFL record

 

Stat of the Week #2:

The Buccaneers have won 5 of their last 6 games

 

Stat of the Week #3:

Quarterback, Taysom Hill, has equal to or more TD receptions than Stefan Diggs, Jason Witten, Alson Jeffery, Davante Adams, George Kittle, Larry Fitzgerald, Jimmy Graham, Sammy Watkins, Will Fuller, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Odell Beckham, Antonio Brown, and Josh Gordon. Just to name a few

 

Stat of the Week #4:

Michael Thomas needs 11 receptions in 2 games to break the all time record held by Marvin Harrison

 

Stat of the Week #5:

Jameis Winston leads the league in both yards and interceptions. It’s also crazy to think that it’s probably a 50-50 chance that Winston remains a starter for the Bucs next year, but is about to become the 12^th player in history to throw for 5000 yards.

 

Stat of the Week #6:

Drew Brees has 5 of the 11 seasons with 5000 passing yards. He has also thrown for the most TD’s in NFL History. Brees has never won an MVP

 

Stat of the Week #7:

For the first time since 2008, the season he got hurt in Week 1, Tom Brady was not selected to the Pro Bowl.

 

Number of the Week:

Eight….that’s how many minutes of Bengals sideline footage the Patriots had on tape. That’s more than just a little “perspective”

 

For the Record:

How do you “suspend” someone, who 3 days earlier was an “independent contractor not associated with the team.” That’s what the Patriots did to their videographer

 

Congrats:

Congrats to Drew Brees on breaking Manning’s record. Ironically Manning is going to go from #1 to #3 in a 5 day timespan assuming Brady tosses a couple on Saturday. It’s crazy to think how the last couple record breakers have absolutely crushed the old #1. Favre beat Marino’s by 88 TD’s, then Manning beat Favre by 31. Now Brees is #1 and likely has 1-3 more years to pad that stat. Also crazy to see how much the league has shifted, Eli Manning is 7^th on this list despite only making the playoffs 6 times in his career and posting a .500 record.

 

Quote of the Week:

”Come on guys, I don’t see the advanced scout in this footage” Bengals security

“I can delete this for you right here” Patriots videographer, in a sleazy Boston accent

“The damage is done my friend” Bengals security

 

Quote of the Week #2:

“Heads or Tails” Ref

“Present” Dak

Or something like that

 

Last 2 Games.

It’s getting a little bit easier to predict playoffs than it was 4 weeks ago. But down to the final 2 games! In fact, it almost looks so easy that when I did the final 2 weeks, it’s the exact same picture we see today. Well that’s no fun…

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

2pt Tracker:

 

Texans: +1

Redskins: +1

Jaguars: -1

Dolphins: -1

 

 

Memes of the Week: