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Friday Morning Quarterback: 54 to 51

Posted by fmquarterback on November 22, 2018
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FMQB: 54 to 51

Special early edition of FMQB! I traditionally do an earlier Thanksgiving one so on can avoid family for 10 minutes. I mean, so I can talk about Thursday’s games next week… Before we get to the best regular season game of all time (trust me I could have written the entire column on that game), let’s look at the rest of the week.

 

Week 11 Highlights:

  • If there was any doubt in the Bear’s division lead, I think they proved they meant to be there on Sunday
  • The Chargers actually had the best record in the NFL dating back to mid-season last year. And they lost to the Broncos at home…
  • The Jags looked like the team of old for the first 50 minutes of that game. The comeback was pretty sweet, game winning score with 4 seconds left.
  • Yikes, Alex Smith’s injury was brutal. Feel terrible for the guy. There goes the Redskins chances this year.
  • Because…wow, Dallas. They’ve found their groove, and it’s handing it off to Zeke. The fact that wasn’t happening the first 6 games is a bit disturbing.
  • The Saints demolished the Eagles, it was the worst loss for a defending Super Bowl champ

 

Stat of the Week:

Lamar Jackson had 27 Carries for 117 yards. He ran the ball 8 more times than he threw it! 27 carries was 5 more than the most QB carries in the past 60 years.

 

Stat of the Week #2:

Todd Gurley already has a 1000 yd season. By next week, Patrick Mahomes will likely be at 4000 yards

 

Stat of the Week #3:

The Ravens rushed the ball 54 times! Versus 19 passing attempts. What is this, 1967?

 

Stat of the Week #4:

Saints have scored 45+ points in 3 straight games, becoming the first team ever to do so

 

Colts Stats of the Week #5:

In Indy’s last 5 games have put up 34, 37, 42, 29 and 38 points. They started the season 1-5 and have rattled of 4 straight wins. Their last loss they gave up 42 against the lowly Jets. Andrew Luck has also had 7 straight games with 3+ TD passes.

 

Stat of the Week #6:

The Bears franchise record for most 300 yard passing games in a season is only 4. Mitch Trubisky has tied that record through the first 10 weeks.

 

Stat of the Week #7:

Aaron Donald leads the NFL in sacks, and is nearly on pace to match the single season sack record, and yet faces a double-team on 72% of snaps played.

 

Most Overused Stat of the Week:

Alex Smith’s gruesome leg injury happened 33 years to the day of Joe Theismann’s career ending sack by Lawrence Taylor. The result of that game was also 23-21.

 

 

For the Record:

  • Not a fan of the Riverboat Ron call to go for 2. That’s more of a desperation move if you’re 3-6 and need to win out to make the playoffs. The Panthers were outplaying the Lions and they’ll need wins to stay in the wild card hunt.
  • In back to back games, Derek Carr has made two huge mental mistakes. Last week he threw the ball away on 4th down, and this week got a penalty for calling back to back timeouts.
  • Bucs are struggling, but they only show up in the 4th quarter. They have had 4 games now where they’ve scored at least 14 points in the 4th quarter to pull within a possession but lose. Games against PIT, ATL, CIN, and NYG.
  • Believe it or not, I’m giving the division to the Cowboys. The Redskins are likely going to fall apart. Philly is a shell of what it was last year. And the Cowboys end the season playing the Bucs and Giants.
  • The Titans have taken out both AFC Championship teams from last year (NE and JAX) as well as the Super Bowl Champ Eagles, but have lost to the Bills, Dolphins, and Colts.

 

 

Stat/Quote of the Week:

The Over/Under for Rams and Chiefs was 63.5 points. It was the highest over/under since 1986. My first reaction literally was “holy crap that was a long time ago!” Only to realize it was the year I was born, boo…

 

Best Regular Season Game of all time:

For the rest of the column, we’re talking about one game. But OH what a game! Somehow Monday night’s matchup surpassed the huge expectations. It felt like a Super Bowl. It has been hyped for 5 weeks, and the crowd was electric. It was a pure back and forth, and even when defense stepped in, they were scoring TD’s as well.

 

Notable Stats:

  • There were 1001 total yards
  • Teams combined for 105 points, which is 3rd most all time
  • It was the first time in NFL history that both teams scored 50 points
  • Mahomes became first QB to throw 6 TD passes and have 5 turnovers
  • Rams Samson Ebukam was first ever with a sack, interception, and 2 TD’s.
  • The Chiefs are the first team in NFL history to score 50 points and lose. In every other game, teams that scored 50+ were 216-0.
  • Jared Goff had never thrown a go-ahead TD in the last 10 minutes of the 4th quarter. He did it twice on Monday
  • The Rams and Chiefs combined for 14 TD’s on Monday night football. Through 10 games, the Bills have only scored 13 all season (8 of which came in their two wins against MIN and NYJ).
  • Last week, the Buccaneers recorded more yards (501) than the Rams did on Monday night (455), but the Bucs scored 51 less points than the Rams.
  • Despite a whopping 7 TD’s, somehow Todd Gurley’s 13 game TD streak was snapped
  • There were 4 lead changes in the 4th quarter
  • Surprisingly there were 7 punts, but they scored so quickly that each team had the ball 15 times in the game (30 total possessions). That’s insane! It averages less than 4 minutes per possession.
  • From 1970-2017, only 3 teams made it through a season averaging 35+ points. So far in 2018 alone, 3 teams are averaging 35 pts.

I know the recency of this game is why people are overreacting, but I’m also having trouble not arguing that this was the greatest NFL game ever played. My only hesitation is the very first point is “well a playoff game or Super Bowl actually means something.” And I fully agree, but here’s my problem with that. Look at some of the greatest Super Bowls, and many are either low scoring, or only BECAME great because of a single play. I’m talking the helmet catch, Kevin Dyson’s tackle at the 1, or Malcolm Butler’s interception in the endzone. But the games themselves could be considered “boring.” The Helmet Catch game featured only 31 points scored, with 8 Punts and 4 turnovers, it was 7-3 going into the 4th quarter. You could easily put Falcons vs. Patriots in that sentence, but it’s essentially a 1 sided game; the first 3 quarters was all ATL with NE struggling, and the 4th and OT was the opposite. Hell of a comeback, but greatest overall game is hard to argue with only one side dominating each segment. The back and forth between the Chiefs and Rams with nearly a score every possession was riveting.

 

Proof it’s the Best Game Ever:

Awesome article by ESPN’s Bill Barnwell. He ranks the top 10 and has criteria on which games he chose. http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25328333/2018-nfl-los-angeles-rams-win-kansas-city-chiefs-was-greatest-regular-season-win-ever

 

For the Record #2:

My DVR records any Rams game that’s on TV. It’s sitting in my DVR, I may just have to watch it again

 

Quote of the Week:

“They’re not the reason the game’s in primetime, we are!” Kirk Cousins…

 

Quote of the Week #2:

“He’s putting Father Time in a chokehold and giving it a noogie!” NFL Network analyst about Frank Gore

 

Quote of the Week #3:

“God, if you are a football fan, please please PLEASE make Super Bowl LIII the Rams and Chiefs” FMQB

 

Question of the Week 4:

I found it a bit surprising that the announcers talked for 15 minutes about the wildfires in California, then cut to the first responders on the field for the national anthem, and then proceeded to light off a crap ton of fireworks and light a giant torch…

 

Memes of the Week:

 

 

 

 

Quota Met:

Turducken, there

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FMQB: Kermit the Frog Strikes again

Posted by fmquarterback on October 5, 2018
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FMQB: Kermit the Frog Strikes again

Week 5 is also suspension week, where some players will start their season. Julian Edelman will help a .500 Patriots team immensely and now sees him lining up with Josh Gordon and Gronk, look out…Mark Ingraham is also back to help the Saints, and he should be able to plow in some TD’s rather than relying on Brees to do the heavy rushing work haha.

 

Overtime Madness!

Titans Eagles was a bit of a shocker. The Eagles went up by a FG in OT, and the Titans converted 3 4th down conversions on the final drive (including a 4th and 15) to win the game. On one 4th down, it was super bold for Mike Vrabel to take the FG team off the field and go for it. Keep in mind we call him bold, but the next coach an idiot…

 

In Texans vs. Colts, the Colts went for it on 4th and 4 on their own 43 with 27 seconds left. I absolutely hated the call when I saw it, even before the failed 4th down happened. Because I knew the Texans needed 1 play to get into FG range. I still wasn’t a fan of it until I read an interesting point. A punt ensures a tie, the Colts are not a playoff team this year, but they had a hot QB and a hall of fame kicker, and a rookie coach who wanted to show his team that he had faith in them. I have changed my mind and like the call in that situation.

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Posted by fmquarterback on September 28, 2018
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FMQB:

Week 3 was the weekend of surprises. I’m not sure if it was a bigger surprise that the Bills won, or that the Vikings lost. The Patriots laid an egg against the 0-2 Lions, and now they’re 1-2. The Jaguars, who had just slain the mighty beast the week before only put up 2 FG’s. Drew Brees, at 39 years old, also had 2 rushing TD’s including a 7 yard run where he juked 2 defenders!

 

 

Quick Hits:

  • Is Marcus Mariota not the starter anymore? I missed something, and he came in after Gabbert got injured
  • Carson Wentz to Dallas Goedert for the TD, means it was North Dakota to South Dakota. Cool!
  • I went from skeptic to genuinely excited for the Monday night game just to see Patrick Mahomes play
  • Adrian Peterson looked like the 2012 version of himself on Sunday
  • Jimmy Garropolo going out for the 49ers is heartbreaking, even from a fan who sees the 49ers as the biggest threat in the division
  • Week of the rookie QB’s! Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen shined, while Darnold and Rosen did not
  • I’m shocked Matt Patricia got the best of his old boss

 

Bar Observations:

I went to a bar in the #BoldNorth to watch the Vikings vs. Rams game. While living in Minneapolis helps me hear about the Vikings more than any other team, I had a few interesting observations:

  • Vikings fans were cheering just as loud for the successful extra point as they were TD’s
  • Kirk Cousins is apparently the greatest thing that’s happened in this town since Kevin Garnett
  • Minnesota Nice Quote of the night “HOLDING, HOW IS THAT HOLDING???” <tv shows replay> “Eh, that was actually a pretty good call.” Vikings fan

 

Stolen Stat

The Raiders have not trailed in any part of the first 3 quarters of any game, but are 0-3.

 

Stolen Stat of the Week #2:

In 2016 only 1 QB threw for 5 TD passes, in 2017 2 QB’s did it. So far through 3.0625 weeks, 3 QB’s have done it in 2018.

 

Stat of the Week #3:

Jared Goff is the 3rd QB in NFL history to have a perfect passer rating while throwing for over 30 attempts

 

Stat of the Week #4:

Proof the game is changing: Goff and Cousins both had at least 400 yds, 3 TD’s, and 0 INTs. Prior to 2018 this had only happened once in the same game, but this is the 2nd time this has happened this season.

 

Stolen Stat of the Week #5:

Ryan Tannehill is 9-1 in his last 10 starts

 

Stat of the Week #6:

Patrick Mahomes 13 TD passes through 3 games is an NFL record. Keep in mind he has 4 career starts in the NFL too

 

For the Record:

  • The Vikings didn’t miss a FG on Sunday
  • The Bills upsetting the Vikings was the biggest upset since 1995
  • Stiff arm in the Steelers Bucs game was just brutal, in a good way
  • Fitz-magic turned into Fitz-tragic in the 2nd quarter. 3 picks, ouch!
  • Pulling Sam Bradford from the game with 4 minutes left was a bit of a head scratcher to me. I realize he fumbled but that’s not the time to make the switch.

 

Mo Money Mo Problems:

Pricetag of Thursday night’s Vikings vs. Rams roster? $448,269,294 in guaranteed money (over several years). To put this into perspective, the Golden State Warriors alone have $313M in guaranteed money.

 

Coulda Woulda Shoulda:

Adrian Peterson will go down as one of the best RB’s in history, despite being 5843 yards shy of Emmit Smith’s rushing record. This is one of those records we’ll never see beat, and he very well could have surpassed that mark. In 2014 he had the child abuse suspension, 2016 he was on injured reserve early in the season, and 2017 was a bit of a joke with him bouncing around between teams. His last full season he ran for 1485 at age 30 mind you. I realize that’s a killer season, but if you figure he can pull that off in his 3 off-years, that puts him at 16,428 coming into this year! Or only 1927 shy of Smith’s record. At his current pace, you’d think he could have knocked that out in two seasons.

 

Rant of the Year: Penalty on the NFL for Roughing the Fans:

Ok, here is my one rant for the year…I don’t know what it is, but I’ve never been more upset with a rule than what the new roughing the passer has become (and it hasn’t even affected my team yet). After what happened last week, the refs were at it again. Before people debate me, I realize this is how the rule is written, so my problem is more with the rule and the league rather than the refs. I also realize that this was my argument supporting the catch rule for the 7ish years that was in place. SO in reality, my argument is that the rule needs to change, and not that these were bad calls. But here’s my problem:

 

  1. Clay Matthews is 100% right, the game has become WAY too soft.
  2. There’s zero consistency in the calls. In the Redskins game, one play had Aaron Rodgers get completely swung around and body slammed WWE style. There was intent there, but no flag. Next series Clay Matthews does what’s considered a form tackle, with Smith holding the ball still, and he gets a flag
  3. This problem is 100% self inflicted, just like the catch rule was and just like the Anthem controversy is (I did it, I said the “A” word). Just makes you more and more wary of how the NFL as an organization as a whole is run.
  4. Big Ben also realized a nuance to the rule; you can now flop and get a flag. That’s all we need in football now!
  5. Dolphins William Hayes tore his ACL trying to avoid putting his body weight on the Derek Carr. Carr even later came out and said “I wish he would have just landed on me.”

 

I also can’t stand how the NFL keeps supporting this. The NBA will flat out admit when they have mistakes and blown calls. And for some reason, the psychology behind it is to say “ah, oh well that happens to the best of us. We’re all human” rather than to continue blaming the refs. There was even a slim chance for hope when they announced Wednesday that they were going to review the rule and that they were “concerned with the amount of flags thrown,” but then they came out AGAIN and said this is the rule and this is the “point of emphasis.”

 

If they continue to call this a foul, you’re completely limiting the point of even pressuring the QB. If going for a clean sack has the inherent risk of a 15 yard penalty, why not put 11 cornerbacks out there and go for an INT everytime?

 

I can see the side of protecting the QB however. You don’t want star players getting hurt like Brady in 2008, or Wentz last year or Jimmy Garrapolo. It basically ruins that team’s season, so I understand that. But still, 34 Flags through the first 3 weeks, vs 16 flags at this same point last year shows this is an issue.

 

Quote of the Week:

Two or three years ago, it probably doesn’t get flagged” Terry McAulay, who has refed 6 Championship games and 3 Super Bowls

 

Throwback Quote of the Week#2:

After the Bears had a 4th quarter comeback against the Cardinals, you couldn’t help but replay “The Bears are who we thought they were, and we let ‘em off the hook!” in your mind.

 

My Meme of the Week:

Just look at the beak on Josh Rosen! Almost as big as the Cardinal on his helmet.

 

Meme of the Week #2:

 

Meme of the Week #3:

 

Scavenger Hunt:

Alright play with me guys. I’m going to end the week by sending you on a little scavenger hunt that should get you laughing. This will probably work better on a computer than a phone, but here’s how it’ll go: I want you to click on the first link. Get the video playing with the volume up, and then as that’s playing, open the 2nd link in a new tab and focus on that picture as you’re listening to the video. You’ll never look at this guy the same again! and you’re welcome!

 

https://www.facebook.com/KansasCityChiefs/videos/patrick-mahomes-postgame-press-conference/1666170423506449/

 

http://www.stickpng.com/es/img/al-cine/los-muppets/rana-gustavo-rene-timido

FMQB: Psych!

Posted by fmquarterback on September 29, 2017
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FMQB: Psych!

 

This week’s article will be focusing 100% on football, and not politics. Because that’s why I and millions of other Americans watch this game; for entertainment purposes. Everybody has and is entitled to their opinions. Nobody is right, nobody is wrong, it’s an opinion about what you think is right. And that folks, is the most I’ll say about this subject the entirety of the season. Now on to Football!

 

Crazy week of upsets:

Apparently the Thursday night game was a precursor to the surprises we’d see on Sunday! Jags blowing out the Ravens, Bills over Broncos, Bears over Steelers, Vikings with a backup QB dominating the Bucs, Jets over Dolphins, Saints blowing out undefeated Panthers, and Redskins over the Raiders. We also came dang close to the Bengals knocking off the Packers, and the Texans taking out the Patriots.

 

Surprise records:

It’s Week 3, I get it, it’s early. But still!

  • Bills are 2-1 and technically in 1st place in their division
  • Jaguars are 2-1, tied for first
  • Giants are 0-3, team many had making a deep playoff run
  • Vikings are 2-1 with their QB only playing in 1 game
  • Rams are 2-1, alone in 1st place in their division
  • Seahawks are 1-2

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FMQB: Sponsored by Mercedes-Benz- The Best or Nothing

Posted by fmquarterback on September 22, 2017
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FMQB: Sponsored by Mercedes-Benz- The Best or Nothing

Game of the Season:

So many people panned the 49ers Rams matchup last night and likely refused to watch the game of the season. The best meme I saw said “This nights game has been moved to Comedy Central.” Well the jokes on you folks! Highest scoring game in Thursday night history, and the 4th quarter saw the following drives: Rams TD to go up 14, San Fran TD but missed extra point (down 8), Rams TD to go up 15, 49ers TD to bring it within 8, Rams fumble the kickoff with 5 minutes left in the game, 49ers score as a result but miss the 2 pt conversion, so they’re down 2. Successful Onside kick with 2 minutes left, but the Rams D finally holds them. Wow what a whirlwind!

 

Thursday Night Disclaimer:

Most of this article is complete before Thursday. But many times the Thursday Night game can throw off some stats from the week before (you’ll see with the 49ers TD total below). This is just a disclaimer that unless I specifically reference the game played on Thursday, the entire article is about Week 2 games.

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FMQB: A Tale of Two Games

Posted by fmquarterback on December 2, 2016
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week12

FMQB: Tale of 2 games

 

For the 2nd week in a row, the Sunday afternoon game was the most exciting game of the week, only to get trumped by the Sunday night game. The Raiders took a 17 point lead on the Panthers, who stormed back with 25 unanswered points of their own and an 8 point lead. The Raiders tied it up and hit a late FG to win it; definitely some good back and forth. The David Carr finger injury had everybody including me holding their breath.

 

We very nearly had the 3rd tie of the season between division rivals. The Chiefs had a 9 point swing, with a rare Safety and then return of the Free Kick. After a bit of a sleeper of a 1st half, they combined for 36 points in the 2nd, with 3 lead changes and 2 TD’s in the final 3 minutes. An amazing final drive for the Chiefs, they had to convert a 4th and 10, and then caught a ball at the 1 yd line with the clock ticking down to 1 second before the refs reviewed it and determined it was a TD. Scary 50-50 play to tie the game, but the Chiefs got the 2pt conversion. The OT consisted of FG, FG, Missed FG, and FG to use the full 15 minutes. The final FG, ironically the same distance as an extra point, was clanked in HARD off the upright and somehow went through. Broncos players were cheering and Chiefs had heads bowed before the refs threw his hands up. Chris Collinsworth said it best “that’s the only way a game like this could end.”

 

Kubiak’s Call:

Coaching is a tough profession, because everybody second guesses your decisions after the fact. It’s 10-fold if it doesn’t pan out (and they’re not even in control of the outcome, the players are). Yet they rarely get credit when it is successful. A lot was said about the Broncos field goal decision at the end of OT, but I’m going to come out and say he made the correct call. He had to take a timeout to think about it, but there are a myriad of situations going on here. The Broncos had 3 options:

 

  • Punt: which nearly guarantees a tie with the time remaining, and a Tie hurts Denver just as much as a loss (Oak and KC have better tiebreakers).
  • Go for it: It’s 4th and 10, you’d have to think there’s a lower percentage of converting that than the FG. Even if you don’t convert it, the Chiefs get the ball pretty much where they did after the missed kick. Even if you make it? You’re still looking at a 52 yd Field Goal which is far from a gimme.
  • Kick the Field Goal. Apparently McManus hits 70 yarders in practice, so he has the leg. You also have one of the best defenses in the league, and are setting KC up for needing 15 yards for a decent shot.

 

I think after reviewing the options, it was the right call. The only chance they had to win the game then and there. Crazy thing is, Kubiak had to figure this out on the fly. I’m sure no coach goes into games thinking of the implications of a tie. And at the end of the day, the kick was long enough but hooked.

 

Stat of the Week:

The Lions have trailed in the 4th quarter of all 11 of their games, and are still 7-4 and leading their division. All 11 games have been within 7 points or less. Never count this team out!

 

Stat of the Week #2:

Bengals K Mike Nugent has missed 3 extra points in a row

 

Stolen Stat of the Week #3:

Over the past 8 games, Marcus Mariotta has a passer rating of 117.7 and 21 TD’s vs. 3 INTs. In his first 2 seasons, he also has 32 redzone TD’s vs 0 INTs.

 

Stat of the Week #4:

The Giants and Dolphins have each won 6 in a row. Extra factoid, they are both led by rookie head coaches.

 

Stat of the Week #5:

Khalil Mack had an INT, Sack, Forced Fumble, Fumble Recovery, and a TD

 

Stat of the Week #6:

Tyreek Hill was the first person since Gale Sayers to have a rushing, receiving, and return TD. That’s some serious company! That’s almost as impressive as Mario Lemieux scoring 5 goals 5 different ways.

 

Stat of the Week #7:

Justin Tucker had 199 yards of Field Goals on Sunday!

 

Stolen Stat of the Week #8:

Ryan Tannehill has 9 TD’s and 1 INT in his last 6 games.

 

For the Record:

  • The Panthers went 0-3 on 2pt plays. Had they merely kicked the extra point each time, they would have gone into OT instead of losing by 3.
  • The Buccaneers are a force, and have taken down the Chiefs and Seahawks in back to back weeks.
  • The Colts played very tough, could have won that game even with a backup QB
  • The Vikings played the best team in the league tough. Minus a few plays, they completely shut them down.

 

Quick Hits:

  • Cam Newton had the first roughing the passer penalty called in his favor since 2014. And it wasn’t even that bad
  • If Jared Goff can play consistently like he did in the 1st half, I’m excited as a Rams fan!
  • I think the Titans end up winning their division. Impressive for year 2 of rebuilding
  • The Panthers have had 3 absolutely sickening losses, and 2 more games they could have easily won. Big difference between 4-7 and 9-2.
  • Which Packer team will show up this week? Nobody seems to know
  • Dallas can already clinch a playoff spot on Sunday, there’s still 5 weeks left in the season
  • You can blame the offensive line issues, but giving up a 1st round pick for a 5-6 QB is turning into a disaster for the Vikings

 

Announcer Love:

I don’t normally talk about the announcers, heck I don’t normally even notice! But need to give a shoutout to NBC’s team. Al Michaels is still the voice of football in my opinion, but #2 is easily Mike Tirico. It has been nice to get him back in the action for some primetime games. It almost makes him leaving ESPN palpable knowing that he’s in line to take over Michaels. The next best team is Joe Buck and Troy Aikman. I could live without Jim Nance and Phil Simms, they bring that “golf” monotone to the commentating which finds me taking a nice afternoon nap during their games. Jon Gruden holds the Monday night crew together, because Sean (whatever his last name is) just isn’t cutting it.

 

In addition to the NBC team, Chris Collinsworth is hands down the best color commentator out there. Sunday night showcased this, but he’s so passionate about the game that he was as giddy as a schoolboy when it went into OT. He also seems to be one of the most intelligent broadcasters out there. More often than not, he’ll make some sort of comment that ends up ringing true later in the game. He also brings out nuances in the games incredibly quickly, that I don’t think 95% of fans would find if they studied film for a week.

 

 

The Browns are now 0-10 since Terrell Pryor suggested the team could win out

 

Photo Credit: NFL.com

FMQB: In Dak We Trust

Posted by fmquarterback on September 9, 2016
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fmqb.jpg

Dun dun dun dunnnnnn. Football is back!!!!

And so is Friday Morning Quarterback for a special Pre-Kickoff Thursday Night edtion of FMQB. It’s also Year 6! Not sure if that’s an obsession or not, but we’ll roll with it. My pre-season predictions is always a bit of a more tedious post, so I’m cutting it back a bit this year. Mainly with my team by team analysis, because I’m not sure how many people care about my thoughts around the Jaguars or Buccaneers. I’ll talk about some, but plan on keeping it brief. Any complaints and I can change it next year.

 

Player Predictions

  • Blake Bortles is top 5 QB in either yards or TD’s this year. INT’s don’t go down
  • RGIII sees a resurgence this year before getting injured at the end of the season. Comeback player of the year
  • Andrew Luck is his old self, bringing the team to the AFC Championship game
  • Brock Osweiler becomes the real deal for Houston
  • Bears WR Kevin White is a household name after this year
  • Kelvin Benjamin is back with a vengeance. Top 5 receiver in the league
  • Last year as starting QB for Jay Cutler (I’ve held onto him too long)

 

Rookies to Watch

Dak Prescott starts more games than Romo (see my worshiping of Dak below). My pick for Rookie of the Year

Ezekial Elliot thrives behind that staunch Dallas O-Line

Jared Goff, of course. See when he gets significant playing time. My guess is he’s inserted in Week 9 and keeps the job

Carson Wentz: I don’t think he’s 100% and has hardly had a chance to adjust to NFL speeds. Could be a long season

Joey Bosa’s saga ends up being worth it for San Diego. He gets defensive Rookie of the Year

 

League MVP

New guys duke it out, but Andy Dalton edges Andrew Luck for the award

 

Surprise Teams

Jaguars

Raiders

Jets

 

Overrated Teams

Broncos: I have actually seen a legitimate site list the Broncos as the best team in the league, with a QB who has never thrown an NFL pass. Wow

Vikings

 

Underrated Teams

Cowboys

Chiefs

 

Team by Team predictions

 

AFC

Patriots: (2015: 12-4): Brady’s suspension will hurt the team but not enough to lose the division. 10-6

Dolphins: (2015: 6-10): Not impressed with the Dolphins this year. Tannehill will regress. 4-12

Bills: (2015: 8-8): The Bills hype is also over. They got blasted in the preseason. 4-12

Jets: (2015: 10-6): Jets finally make the playoffs with Fitzpatrick. 10-6

 

Bengals: (2015: 12-4): They would have been even better if Dalton was healthy. My #1 seed this year at 13-3

Ravens: (2015: 5-11): Another team that was decimated by injuries. They are close to playoff caliber this year but in a tough division. 8-8

Browns: (2015: 3-13): I think RGIII does improve the team a bit, but to 6-10.

Steelers: (2015: 10-6): Will fight for the division, but make a run in the playoffs. 11-5

 

Broncos: (2015: 12-4): Their defense won them a Super Bowl with a mediocre QB last year. Won’t happen again and they’ll miss the postseason. Big dropoff to 7-9

Chargers: (2015: 4-12): Another team that I don’t see improving. 3-13

Chiefs: (2015: 11-5): Division winner, could see even going deep into the playoffs. 12-4

Raiders: (2015: 7-9): Will show considerable improvement, Derek Carr will get people talking. 10-6

 

Colts: (2015: 8-8): Colts re-take the throne with a healthy Andrew Luck. 10-6

Jaguars: (2015: 5-11): Sleeper team this year, improves but misses the playoffs at 9-7.

Titans: (2015: 3-13): They’ve added a ton of key players, but are still a couple years away. 7-9

Texans: (2015: 9-7): Osweiler will be the key, or the reason for failure. 9-7

 

NFC

Giants: (2015: 6-10): New coach, same system, same results. 7-9

Redskins: (2015: 9-7): Redskins take this mediocre division again at 10-6.

Eagles: (2015: 7-9): Trading Bradford was a mistake this year. Wentz struggles, goes 6-10

Cowboys: (2015: 4-12): Cowboys are my sleeper in the NFC, as you’ll see in my Dak Prescott worshiping below. 10-6

 

Vikings: (2015: 11-5): Read my Bridgewater/Bradford rant below. Vikes miss the playoffs at 8-8

Lions: (2015: 7-9): Could have a powerful group of receivers. Barely miss out at 9-7

Packers: (2015: 10-6): Packers easily run with the division at 12-4.

Bears: (2015: 6-10): This team is mediocre at best, but see them regressing to 5-11. John Fox’s last year

 

Rams: (2015: 7-9): I see improvement, but the QB carousel will be their demise. 8-8
Cardinals: (2015: 13-3): Slight regression from last year, but they get in a Wild Card spot at 10-6

49ers: (2015: 5-11): Chip Kelly is the only thing going for this team. Otherwise the #1 overall pick looks nice 3-13

Seahawks: (2015: 10-6): Seahawks right the ship and take the division at 12-4

 

Saints: (2015: 7-9): No big change, still mediocre at 7-9 again.

Falcons: (2015: 8-8): Falcons are a team going downhill, even with Freeman and Jones. 6-10

Panthers: (2015: 15-1): Panthers continue to dominate the division, but just at a paltry 13-3

Buccaneers: (2015: 6-10): Winston will look better this year at 8-8.

 

 

Playoff Predictions

AFC

  1. Bengals
  2. Patriots
  3. Chiefs
  4. Colts
  5. Jets
  6. Raiders

 

NFC

  1. Packers
  2. Panthers
  3. Seahawks
  4. Redskins
  5. Cardinals
  6. Cowboys

 

Super Bowl picks

If we’re talking Vegas, I have money on the Colts and Cardinals (simply for Odds purposes).

In terms of FMQB, I have Packers and Patriots going, Packers winning it. Second choice would be Bengals Seahawks.

 

In Dak We Trust:

I know a lot of people have jumped on this train, but I ended up watching the first two preseason games; Rams and Dolphins. Both games he looked incredibly poised, had a rocket of an arm, good pocket presence, and could run if he needed to. 5 TD’s, 0 INT’s in 3 preseason games. The Cowboys biggest problem the last 5 years was that whenever Romo gets injured, their season is over. They have had Kyle Orton, Brandon Weeden, Matt Cassell, and Jon Kitna to fit the bill. This year they have a stark Rookie, who they can easily train as the replacement to Romo. He’ll have a chance to show his skills the first 6-10 weeks. Could make a decision to re-insert Romo pretty tough, but keep in mind the one full season he was healthy during that timeframe, he took the Cowboys to 12-4.

 

Bridgewater/Bradford rant

First, living in Minnesota and spending time around a bunch of Minnesota fans, I got to feel their despair first hand when Teddy Bridgewater went down. It literally felt like somebody passed away. There was video of the Ambulance going to Winter Park, players swearing and crying, business that day seemed to come to a standstill. Very similar to when Prince died (yes I’m making that comparison, no don’t jump down my throat for it I know it’s not the same). It’s all anybody could talk about on the radio and in the office. I truly felt bad for Vikings-nation. Even my Packer-fanatic girlfriend showed remorse rather than glee that they had just been handed the division. It was a sad day.

 

Fast forward 96 hours, and in true Viking-fan form, the whole “we won a game honey, we’re going to the Super Bowl” mentality was back! The Vikings traded their first round pick for none other than Sam Bradford. A guy I had rallied behind for 4 years while in St. Louis, but never got to see his true potential due to injuries. My famous argument was “He was rookie of the year for a reason, he has talent!” I ended up giving up on him after the 2nd straight year of having to watch Shaun Hill QB our team due to his injuries. But with a mere 8 days to learn the offense before opening day, and of course because #5 defense from last year is all of a sudden compared to the 85 Bears (yes I heard that on the radio) and 01 Ravens or 03 Buccaneers (Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson were main arguing points). This makes them Super Bowl worthy.

 

I have yet to hear a definitive timeframe for Teddy’s injury. I have “heard” 16-20 months, but only read in official reports 9-12. Here’s my thought on the whole Bradford trade, which I’m sure people won’t like. The Vikings way-overpaid, and anything less than a Super Bowl this year is a failure. Why? Because I think Bridgewater is back next year, and at the worst for a majority of that 2017 season. There’s no way that they have Bridgewater and Bradford compete for the spot, it’s Teddy’s team. So in my mind, this is a 1 year, band-aid trade. They gave up their 1st round pick to try to remain in their championship window, when one could argue there’s at least 6 other teams more talented than the Vikes anyway. It’s just too much in my opinion.

 

Goff vs. Wentz

I realized that I never really inserted my opinion regarding the top 2 picks this year. Part of it has wavered, but still remains the same. As a Rams fan, I’m extremely disappointed that they chose Goff over Wentz. Goff has had the worst college record of any #1 overall pick (14-23), although he did break some of Aaron Rodgers’ school records. Still, that’s a 37% win rate. As of Hard Knocks, we have seen that Day 1, successfully receiving the hike from the center was a giant challenge. Maybe there’s a reason he’s inactive Week 1. On the flip side, Carson Wentz won 5 National Championships while in college. Yes, FIVE!!! That’s an all time NCAA record (although he red-shirted his freshmen year). He also scored higher on the Wonderlic test than Peyton Manning.

 

Here’s my thoughts. I like the Rams approach, I was afraid they’d start Goff immediately, and it seems like most Rookie QB success comes by waiting (a la Aaron Rodgers and Carson Palmer). They have a chance to learn the offense and develop mentally before getting thrown into the fire physically. HAD the Eagles kept Sam Bradford and developed Wentz in the same way, I would hands down have said Wentz is and will be the better QB (thus, being severely disappointed as a Rams fan). But it’s up in the air for me now. I have seen flashes of greatness from Jared Goff, but also blundering rookie mistakes. He’s also gotten smoked a couple times in the preseason, and he’s not even playing against 1st string guys. Wentz on the other hand is now being thrown into the starting spot after just a couple preseason reps before getting hurt (and he may not be 100% healthy). Will be interesting to watch this season.

 

Stat of the Week:

Sam Bradford has been paid $1M for every TD pass thrown in the league ($78M earned in career, 78 TD passes)

 

Quote of the Offseason:

I’m not going 7-9 again!- Jeff Fisher, Rams head coach

 

For the Record:

It’s strange to realize, but for the first time in 12 years, the debate “Who’s the best QB in football” isn’t synonymous with “Brady vs. Manning.”