week 1

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FMQB: The Drama Continues

Posted by fmquarterback on September 13, 2019
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Shorter post this week, mainly because I didn’t see a down of football. But some quick hits and interesting tidbits from Week 1.

 

Quick Hits:

  • The fall from grace of the Browns hype-balloon is probably the fastest I’ve ever seen. They got killed, at home, by a team that didn’t make the playoffs last year.
  • Speaking of a stomping, the Ravens manhandling of the Dolphins was also insane. It was 42-3 with time left in the FIRST half!
  • At one point in the 2nd quarter, the Redskins were beating the Eagles 17-0.
  • We have our 1st tie of the season, already.
  • I’m not surprised that the Patriots beat the Steelers, but am surprised at the lack of offense the Steelers have with 2 of the 3 B’s gone
  • Kyler Murray looked incredibly soft to start the game, but curious if the momentum he had in the 4th quarter is a picture of what could become.
  • Sam Darnold is out with Mono, I’ve literally never seen that on an injury report before!
  • I also don’t think I’ve seen a situation where “multiple players have contacted their agents to request a trade from the Dolphins.” Not the 2016 Browns, or the Lions.
  • Sad to see Nick Foles out for a good chunk of the season. Would have been interesting to see what he could have done there
  • The Saints/Texans ending looked like the most exciting game of the week

 

Stat of the Week:

God’s Gift to Man Cam is on a 8 game losing streak…

 

Stat of the Week #2:

Your top 4 QB’s in terms of yardage are Andy Dalton, Dak Prescot, Mathew Stafford, and Case Keenum

 

Stat of the Week #3:

Marlon Mack averaged 7 yards per carry, on 25 rushing attempts! And the Chargers should have known that the Colts would be run-heavy during their first game since the shocking Andrew Luck retirement.

 

Stat of the Week #4:

According to the official Win Probability numbers, when the Dolphins were down 59-10 with 1:05 remaining in the game, they statistically had a 0.1% chance of still winning the game.

Stat of the Week #5:

Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott both had perfect passer ratings on Sunday

 

Stat of the Week #6:

The Browns had 18 penalties for 183 yards, and three turnovers in the 4th quarter. Same ol Browns team.

 

Scheduling tidbit:

The Packers play 5 of the next 6 games at home, meaning their “Frozen Tundra” advantage may be minimal this year. Also primes them up to a hot start and cold finish ending 6 of their last 9 games on the road.

 

Antonio Brown Timeline:

 

The 6 day timeframe of AB was nuts, especially following it from Europe and waking up to see a new twist in the saga. Here we go:

Wednesday: Brown is fined by the Raiders due to missing 2 practices. Brown decides to post a picture of the letter from the GM on Instagram (brilliant move, and that’s either sarcasm or not depending on what you think Brown’s angle was.

Thursday: Brown gets in an altercation with the Raiders GM. Threatened to hit him, and reportedly had to be held back by teammates. Rumors he will be suspended by the team to avoid paying him his guaranteed $30M. Definitely won’t be playing Monday night.

Friday: Brown has an emotional apology within the locker room. Gruden is asked if Brown will play Monday night and he says “that’s the plan.”

Saturday: Brown decides to demand his release from the Raiders, they oblige and he’s officially a free agent.

Later Saturday: Brown signs with the New England Patriots (I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but tell me you don’t think this is fishy!)

Tuesday: Brown is accused of sexual assault, threat of being put on Commissioner’s Exempt list and not playing this season anyway

 

Thought of the Week:

The NBA is starting to wear off on the NFL. Basketball players run the league and they ran free agency this past offseason. Antonio Brown was able to essentially orchestrate his departure from the Raiders and sign with the Super Bowl contenders.

 

Memes of the Week:

 

 

 

 

 

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FMQB: Year 9, Knock on Wood if you’re With Me!!!

Posted by fmquarterback on August 30, 2019
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FMQB: Year 9, Knock on Wood if you’re With Me

Friday Morning Quarterback is back! Year 9!!!! It seems like forever since I’ve put out a post, and I have to say this is been one of the crazier offseasons for stories. Knock on wood if you’re with me!!!!!

 

It’s the NFL’s 100th season. Antonio Brown is getting weirder by the day, and is apparently being sued by a chef because he found his fish head in the freezer and thought it was a mob threat. Not to mention his helmet issues. The Packers played a preseason game on an 80 yard field and no kickoffs (do we think that was on accident)? The Giants were the laughing stock of the league when they drafted Daniel Jones, only to have him look like a veteran QB WAY ahead of Manning in the preseason. And are we really living in a world where the Cleveland Browns are the most hyped team going into the season? Don’t even get me going on the shockwave through the NFL of Andrew Luck retiring, likely leaving $100+ million and a hall of fame bust on the table.

 

This is my annual Prediction post. And I’ll have an abbreviated Week 1 recap next week. Finish the Dad joke and you’ll find out where I am currently honeymooning: “Did you know the first French fries weren’t made in France? No, they were fried in….”

 

2019 Predictions:

  • Rookie of the Year- NOT Kyler Murray
  • MVP- Patrick Mahomes again
  • Comeback player of the year- Cooper Kupp
  • The Daniel Jones Eli Manning narrative will dominate headlines. Manning will make it through the first 4 weeks going 1-3, and by Week 5 Daniel Jones is under center.
  • LeVeon Bell will underperform, starting all 16 games but not hitting 1000 yards, which will hurt the RB market for everyone else moving forward
  • Speaking of RB market, Zeke has a deal done by Week 3, but is outside the top 5 rushers. Gordon will hold out, into October. Gurley will play, but be affected by his knee, coming in outside the Top 10 but will be top 5 in TD’s.
  • Rosen is the starting QB for the Dolphins by Week 7, but will still struggle
  • Nick Foles won’t have the same success as in Philly, but will be a dramatic increase from Blake Bortles.
  • Odell Beckham will be mostly off the radar in terms of drama, but will light it up on the field. Antonio Brown however will continue adding to his weird saga, and will get extremely frustrated as him and Carr are on different wavelengths.

 

FMQB Ranting already:

I do want to step in and give my opinion of the new pass interference rule, and the fact it’s reviewable. My prediction is this is a one and done rule, and will be a disaster once games are won and lost due to it. (I get it Saints fans, you have a right to complain). But we’re going to have a scenario where a call is overturned in the end zone that is ticky tacky and decides the game. I guarantee this happens, and likely more than once. It’s almost a weekly occurrence that a 4th and Goal ends with a fade in the endzone, and now coaches are going to challenge every play. It’s going to be a situation where you look at the play and accept the call on the field, but under review there’s some minor hold that technically defines PI, and it’s going to change the outcome of the game. Just watch, that’s my prediction.

 

Take on Andrew Luck:

I was absolutely shocked to hear Luck was retiring. In fact, one way I know I’m old, is that I remember doing this blog the year leading up to Luck being drafted and now he’s retiring! Here’s my thing, yes the timing was absolutely terrible and essentially ruins the Colts’ season, but he had every right to do this. He’s a grown man and can make whatever decision is right for him. The fact Colts fans booed him off the field was also despicable. The organization was classy by letting him keep close to $25M, that’s a ton of money! But after seeing Calvin Johnson, Rob Gronkowski, and now Luck retire essentially in their prime, I think this is going to become a thing in the NFL. People are more cognizant of the toll it takes on their bodies, and enjoying life. I just wouldn’t be surprised to see some QB’s play well into their 40s, while other stars leaving at 29 is considered “normal.”

 

AFC North: I have the Browns and Ravens battling it out for the division. Should be fun to see the progression of both 2nd year QB’s. The Steelers will regress, and we’re nearing the end of this “regime.”

AFC East: Patriots have this in the bag as always, although I think the Jets are going to make a run at it and sneak in a wild card spot. Sam Darnold is going to be a force to be reckoned with in the upcoming years. Watch for the Dolphins to have a Top 3 pick.

AFC South: Such a weird division! You could almost argue for any team, but no team to be more than 10 or 11 wins. I had the Colts taking it until Saturday, now I think they’ll be in last place. The Texans will be solid, the Jags should improve with Foles, and the Titans would be playoff caliber if Mariotta stays healthy.

AFC West: The Chiefs should take this division handily as well. On the fence with Denver, if Flacco has some magic left they could be a team on the rise. Oakland also looks good on Hard Knocks, but that could be fancy camera work. Chargers should regress with Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen missing time.

 

 

 

NFC North: Another weird division. I do think the Bears are the best team in the division, but their kicking woes could easily lose them 3 games. Packers should be better if Rodgers is healthy and a hungry coach. I think the Vikings have a 9-7 season and miss the playoffs again, and the Lions will pull a Lions and be obsolete by Week 5.

NFC East: Without Foles to fall back on, Wentz will have to stay healthy, but the Eagles have a chance to make a deep playoff run. The Cowboys will do what they always do under Jason Garrett, and go 8-8 after a playoff year. The Giants will be newsworthy, but not in the playoff hunt. And the Redskins will have QB woes that still aren’t addressed by January.

NFC South: The Saints are still a powerhouse, but their window is rapidly closing. They’ll take the #1 seed one last time though. The Bucs will have to move on from Winston after this year. Panthers will struggle with Newton staying healthy, and the Falcons will be in line for a Wild Card spot.

NFC West: The Rams are easily the best team in the division. The Seahawks will make a push, but they’ve lost too many players to make the playoffs. Jimmy G will lead the league in INT’s, so the 49ers aren’t in the picture. And Arizona will be a fun team to watch but Murray will have ups and downs.

 

Playoff Predictions

 

AFC:

Patriots

Texans

Chiefs

Browns

Ravens

Jets

 

 

NFC:

Eagles

Bears

Rams

Saints

Falcons

Packers

 

AFC Championship:

Chiefs vs. Texans

 

 

NFC Championship:

Saints vs. Eagles

 

Super Bowl:

Chiefs vs. Saints- Chiefs win it all

 

Quote of the Offseason:

“He drinks a gallon of milk every day. … I think it’s the milk that’s not pasteurized, either. I think it’s right out of the teat.”

Jay Gruden on Colt McCoy’s milk habits.

 

Best Quote of the Offseason:

“Knock on wood if you’re with me” Jon Gruden

 

Meme’s of the Offseason:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FMQB: Eight is Great!

Posted by fmquarterback on September 6, 2018
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FMQB: Eight is Great!

I’m so excited for the season to start that I couldn’t wait until Friday! Here’s your tide-over for the next 3 hours until kickoff!!!

 

Wow, year 8 for FMQB! I still love doing this, and at times it feels taxing, but I’m determined to get to 10 so you’re stuck with me for at least a few more seasons! Same pledge as last year, I’m going to try to keep the paragraphs to a minimum, and once again try to bring back nicknames which fell a bit short last year.

 

I won’t do all 32 team records this year, but of COURSE playoff predictions are here:

 

AFC:

  1. Steelers
  2. Patriots
  3. Jaguars
  4. Chargers
  5. Texans
  6. Dolphins

 

NFC:

  1. Vikings
  2. Saints
  3. Rams
  4. Eagles
  5. Falcons
  6. Packers

 

AFC Championship:

Steelers vs. Jaguars

 

NFC Championship:

Saints vs. Vikings

 

Super Bowl LIII:

Saints vs. Steelers

 

Other Predictions:

  • MVP- Carson Wentz (even if he misses a few weeks)
  • The Browns will win 7 games this year
  • This will be the Patriots last year in the playoffs under Tom Brady
  • This will be Eli Manning’s swan song
  • Offensive Player of the Year: DeShaun Watson
  • Defensive Player of the Year: JJ Watt
  • Comeback Player of the Year: Andrew Luck
  • Jon Gruden struggles in his first year, going 6-10
  • Rookie of the Year: Saquon Barkley
  • Rookie QB Watch:
    • Baker Mayfield: Starting by Week 11, goes 0-5 to end the season
    • Sam Darnold: Starts Week 1, will make the Jets competitive again at 8-8, playoffs next year
    • Josh Allen: Starts Week 3, struggles mightily but has 18 TDs and 24 INTs
    • Josh Rosen: Loses temper in Ryan Leaf-esque news conference, but starts after Sam Bradford injury in Week 4
    • Lamar Jackson: Takes over for a struggling Joe Flacco at 5-5, finishes season 9-7
  • Most Improved from Last Year? Jets or Browns
  • Most Overrated? Eagles, Patriots and Chiefs who are somehow #10 on power rankings with a new QB and a rebuilt defense
  • New coach outlook:
    • Jon Gruden- Raiders. I think he struggles his first year, has some run-ins with the NFL by overpracticing his squad or injury reports (something to do with new rules in play since he was in the league). But they’re a playoff team next year
    • Mike Vrabel- Titans. I bet this is a perennial playoff team shortly with one of the best defenses in the league in 2 years and Mariotta “good enough” to get them to 10-6 each year. I think they fall short his first year though.
    • Matt Patricia- Lions. I’m most interested in seeing this one play out. Belichcik disciples have traditionally done terribly in Head Coaching roles (Charlie Weiss, Romeo Crennel, Eric Mangini to name a few). But he has pieces to work with in Detroit.
    • Frank Reich- Colts: I think it’s a building season, but having the OC from the Super Bowl champs helps. I think he could be a good long term coach.
    • Steve Wilks, Arizona: With QB questions and a soon to be retired Larry Fitzgerald, I think Wilks is the first in this class to get fired.
    • Matt Nagy, Bears: I have a feeling this is one of those situations where you have an amazing coach with a terrible team. If he’s around long enough to get a decent QB and to rebuild, this is my Super Bowl winning coach of the bunch.
    • Pat Shurmur, Giants: 2nd go around in coaching, but he’ll have to deal with QB replacement soon. However you have a couple of the best offensive players in the game with Barkley and Beckham, and an offensive minded coach. Could be poised for a playoff run his first year.

 

 

Stat of the Week:

Tom Brady is the 3rd QB to enter a season as a starter at 41 or older. The other two (Brett Favre and Warren Moon) struggled mightily after age 41. Remember Peyton Manning’s 55 TD year, and the following season he limped his way into retirement? When is that going to happen for Brady? Even with his crazy diet, it’s going to catch up to him at somepoint, and the Patriots are going to go from a Super Bowl caliber team to a 6-10 team VERY quickly.

 

Stat of the Week #2:

The Vikings are the only team with a winning record in the Super Bowl era not to have won a title

 

Stat of the Week #3:

Julio Jones only had 3 TD’s last season (yet was griping about wanting a new contract). I’ll admit he’s a beast for yardage, and hands down a top receiver in the league, but he’s only had one double-digit TD season in his 7 year career.

 

Feel Good Player to Watch:

Keep an eye on Shaquem Griffin for the Seahawks. He had his left hand amputated as a kid so only has one hand. A high school coach wouldn’t let him join the team because “Football players have 2 hands.” He ended up playing college ball at UCF, but wasn’t even initially invited to the Combine! But he got in and did one handed bench press and ran a blistering 4.38 40 yard dash! He got drafted in the 5th round, which is basically less than 50-50 that you make the team. Not only did he make the team, he’s starting week 1 for the Seahawks! To put this into perspective, there is only one other Rookie starting for the team, and it’s the Punter.

 

Nostalgia:

Jon Gruden’s last playoff victory was the Super Bowl win (against the Raiders) where he became the youngest head coach to win a Super Bowl. To give perspective at how long ago this was, Tom Brady had 1 Super Bowl appearance and victory by this point.

 

 

To Boldly Go Where We’ll Never Go Back To Again!

So apparently the NFL got scared away by the 10 degree temperatures in the #BoldNorth last year. Next 6 Super Bowl locations are Atlanta, Miami, Tampa Bay, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and New Orleans. Nothing north of the Mason Dixon line!

 

Quick Hits:

  • I have been anti-Patrick Mahomes for the past year (nothing against him, I just don’t get why they ran Alex Smith out of town), but WOW, that arm! He had a throw that went 70 yards in the air, which was longer than ANY pass the entire season last year.
  • Funny how Adrian Peterson was so picky on taking a contract last year, and now he just signed for the Veteran minimum in Washington
  • LeVeon Bell should take a hint from this, take your money now, the market for you next year when you’re a year older won’t be great
  • On the same note, I have a feeling that things between Bell and Pittsburgh is going to get ugly, very fast. It’s not unfeasible to see him sit out the entire season.
  • I don’t see the hatred with NBC’s new “Green Zone.” I actually think this is much better than the gaudy yellow line showing the first down marker. It’s more pleasing to the eye because it’s subtle, but it’s fast to realize where a player is in relation to the 1st down. It needs some tweaking because it looks video game-ish when players are running through it, but don’t let the Twitter trolls get rid of this feature!
  • Losing Khalil Mack just lost the Raiders the West
  • How Aaron Rodgers is making 2/3 of what other QB’s are getting paid is beyond me

 

Aaron Rodgers Contract:

That last statement was obviously written last week. He got a whopping $103M in guaranteed money, and with incentives could reach $179.5M. I made a big deal out of the inequality of pay. The fact that Matthew Stafford, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garrapolo and Kirk Cousins were the highest paid QB’s was ridiculous (that’s 1 playoff win COMBINED between the 4 of them). The contracts are more about timing than skill. Well the Packers made right with the future hall of famer in my opinion. Here’s the crazy thing, you look at those numbers and it isn’t even surprising anymore, you hardly bat an eye. Here’s why: Alex Rodriguez surpassed the $200M mark…18 years ago! Steph Curry also surpassed $200M last year. Rodgers can only hope he gets that high, as it’s after incentives. His guaranteed money is half that amount.

 

Buzz:

For some reason, people are buzzing about a few surprise teams. Rumors around the league say that Mitch Trubisky could be like the Jared Goff of last year and is maturing as a QB. The Giants are also supposedly looking stronger, helped by Saquon Barkley of course but if he’s the next Ezekial Elliot that could be huge. The Chargers are also getting a LOT of buzz. Not a ton has changed with them, but they went on a run and had some ugly losses that should have made this a playoff team.

 

The NFC is utterly stacked. You have the Eagles, Rams are right up there, Falcons, Saints, Vikings with Dalvin Cook back, the Packers are always competitive with Rodgers, as are the Panthers with Newton. The Cowboys, Redskins, Lions, and Seahawks will all be mediocre teams but you don’t want to overlook them.

 

Games of Week 1:

Atlanta at Philadelphia- The playoff game last year was Atlanta’s to win

49ers at Vikings- Will be interesting to essentially see 2 new QB’s on teams with high expectations duke it out

Texans at Patriots- a passing of the torch possibly? The GOAT playing against the young stud QB

Rams at Oakland- Battle of Old LA

Chiefs at Chargers- Battle for the AFC West starts Week 1. Will be a key game for playoff purposes

 

Quote of the Season:

“Stretching is way overrated. Did you know World War I and World War II, all those guys that fought in that war, right? They did pushups, jumping jacks, situps, climbed the rope and ran. But none of this fancy (expletive). Okay? And they won two world wars — two world wars! — by doing jumping jacks, pushups, and situps. You think they were worried when they’re running across Normandy about (expletive) stretching?” Bob Wylie- Offensive Line coach of the browns

 

Meme of the Week:

 

FMQB: In Pagano’s eyes, the 49ers are 1-0!

Posted by fmquarterback on September 15, 2017
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Kind of a rough week, only 2 games were within 3 points (Steelers and Broncos), otherwise every other matchup was at least a TD difference. But Week 1 is always about getting the kinks out, and we’ve got some good divisional matchups coming up as well as an NFC Championship rematch.

 

 

Quick Hits:

  • Carson Wentz’ evasion of the sack and TD toss to Nelson Agholor was insane.
  • Watching Matt Ryan slip, nearly get sacked, and toss an 88 yd TD to slow as molasses Austin Hooper was also insane.
  • Get ready to see more Tarik Cohen in Chicago, wow was he impressive!
  • The Bears really hung in there against a Super Bowl caliber team. In fact they should have won
  • Felt like I noticed the Cardinals were handling the Lions, and then the next time I looked the Lions had scored 28 points
  • Feel bad for Houston, so much energy to start the game, but they fell completely flat
  • Cole Beasley’s catch behind back. Not catch of the year material, but still have never seen anything like it before

 

For the Record:

  • Had the Bears completed their comeback against the Falcons, the media would have had a field day!
  • The look in Adrian Peterson’s eyes behind Sean Payton. Scary
  • For all the talk the Patriots had about their Super Bowl comeback, they sure emptied the stadium quick with the game not out of hand.
  • On the same wavelength, there sure was a lot of 19-0 talks about the Patriots this offseason, that was quieted in less than 3 hours.
  • 3 points for offensive genius Kyle Shanahan’s debut.

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FMQB: Special Pre-Kickoff Thursday Night Edition!!!!

Posted by fmquarterback on September 7, 2017
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I’m back, wow, Season 7 of Friday Morning Quarterback! Expect a few changes this year, fewer dissertations and more quick hitting fun facts. We all watch the games, I don’t need to turn into Joe Buck 2.0 and explain what happened. I know I promised to go back to the goofy team names last year, and like Digiorno I didn’t deliver. So I’ll try again folks!

 

 

Quick Recap from Last year’s Predictions

 

The Good:

  • Predicted Packers Patriots Super Bowl. Got one right, the second lost in the NFC Championship
  • “Last year as starting QB for Jay Cutler (I’ve held onto him too long)”…I was close until he was yanked out of retirement
  • Picked 6 of 32 records dead on
  • Picked both Offensive and Defensive rookies of the year, that’s a first!
  • Predicted the QB controversy in Dallas, said Dak would keep the starting job
  • Said Jared Goff would get and keep the starting job in Week 9, happened in Week 10!

 

The Bad

 

  • “Blake Bortles is a top 5 QB in either yards or TD’s.” Nope, #15 in both
  • “RGIII sees a resurgence this year before getting injured at the end of the season. Comeback player of the year.” Call it a push, his resurgence (if you want to call it that) essentially came in preseason but he got hurt way too early.
  • “Kelvin Benjamin is back with a vengeance. Top 5 receiver in the league” He showed promise, but was 31st in yards, 16th in TDs

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FMQB: Comebacks and Missed Kicks

Posted by fmquarterback on September 16, 2016
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week-1Photo credit: NFL.com

Last season seemed to be the season of comebacks, but it’s already looking like this season might be crazier! Record amount of 4th quarter comebacks in Week 1 already.

 

New Age Quarterbacks:

It’s rare that backup QB’s come in and do so well for teams. Perhaps why the stories of Tom Brady and Kurt Warner stay in people’s minds. It makes it almost more impossible that a new wave of young QB’s has seem to taken the field by storm. First time starters Trevor Siemien, Jimmy Garapolo, and Carson Wentz all won, and all looked solid! Even Brock Osweiler and Jameis Winston definitely showed up, who of course played last year but aren’t household names. Dak Prescott also had a decent first start with no real mistakes. It makes you wonder if gone are the days where you have your top 5 QB’s that everybody focuses on, and the rest are mediocre.

 

Going for Two:

Love, love, LOVE the call by Jack Del Rio to go for 2 at the end of the game! Coaches never want to take risks, because it’s their heads if the call is unsuccessful. So Kudos to the Raiders for taking a chance, it was the right call even if they failed. The situation was ripe for it. You’re in a shootout, so obviously your Defense wasn’t stopping the Saints (but the flipside is also true). They were on the road, so an additional period likely favors the Saints. OT is probably less than 50% chance you win the game, but a 2 pt call is right around 50-50. Don’t get me into the fact that the extra point is definitely not automatic anymore (as we saw 4 teams run into this week). The only thing I’m not a fan of is the play call itself; fade routes can be tough to execute. But either way the Raiders did it. Week 1 is never a “must win” scenario, but it could be season defining for Oakland where a precious win will pay dividends in their playoff push.

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